Assuming records for the county of Inverness are generally representative of conditions in Aviemore, examination of long-term weather data and monthly average conditions for the period proceeding and including the fire (Table 2) suggested rainfall during May–July was about half the long-term average whilst temperatures were generally several degrees warmer than normal. The indices and codes of the FWI

system showed that in the period leading up to the fire there were substantial fluctuations in the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) but values were above 80 for considerable periods of time (Fig. 2). In comparison, during the whole period for which we calculated FWI system values buy Duvelisib (1st January–31st August) FFMC was <90 on 98% of days, <80 on 70% of days and <70 on 52% of days.

The Duff Moisture Code (DMC) also fluctuated substantially with a significant decline in predicted moisture content developing between the 11th and 25th of July. The Drought Code (DC) increased Volasertib supplier gradually over the month leading up to the fire reaching a value of 338 on the day of the initial burn before fluctuating slightly and peaking at 404 roughly a month later. Patterns in the Initial Spread Index (ISI) and Fire Weather Index (FWI) were similar with a noticeable peak in the FWI during the three or four days immediately surrounding the initial burn date. The peat was strongly stratified with a distinct boundary between the forest duff (partially decomposed bryophytes and conifer litter) and the consolidated peat which contained remains of E. vaginatum and clearly pre-dated the plantation. Mineral material in some cores had been turned onto the surface of the peat by ploughing during site preparation. Litter and duff showed much lower total FMC than peat. Although

this could be partially accounted for by the comparatively large amount of mineral material within these layers, the differences remained substantial (Table this website 3). Litter and duff generally had a much lower bulk density than the peat (Table 3 and Fig. 3). Distinctive layers were obvious in the peat during field monitoring and analysis of bulk density indicated that the fibrous surface peat was often associated with noticeable differences in fuel properties from the lower humified peat (Fig. 3). Light, surface burns appeared to only affect the structure of the litter layer and there was a relatively clear differentiation in peat bulk density at a depth of 15 cm or greater (Fig. 3). To allow for a fire-wide estimate of the total amount of fuel consumed we used the information in Fig. 3 to create a generic ground fuel profile consisting of layers of litter, duff, surface fibrous peat and the lower humified peat (Table 3).