We estimated possible distribution of S. tenuifolium in 2100 by these temperature ranges in February and August. Potential distribution of S. tenuifolium moved to the northeast and northwest coasts of Honshu Island, and the west and east coasts of Korean Peninsula. The area was limited in short distance along the coasts. Sessile organisms cannot move after settlement on the

bottom. Therefore, their geographical distributions are more sensitive to environmental changes, especially water temperature because physiological activities of marine organisms depend on water temperature, especially seaweeds selleck kinase inhibitor (e.g. Komatsu et al., 1997 and Mikami et al., 2006). Estimation of S. horneri’s geographical distribution in 2000 shows good correspondence between

that reported by literatures and coasts within surface water temperature ranges. This means that the geographical distribution of S. horneri greatly depends on the maximum and minimum surface water temperatures in a year. It is feasible to predict distribution of seaweed by the intersection of sets of coasts ranging the lowest and highest of the maximum and minimum monthly surface water temperatures in a year at its localities. Bleomycin mw If prediction of surface water temperature is realistic, predication of S. horneri is possible. S. horneri lives within a wide range of surface water temperature ( Umezaki, 1984). Although it seems that spatial distribution of S. horneri is not greatly changed due to water temperature rise by 2050 except its southern limits of distributions

in 2000. In southern limits, S. horneri was extinguished from south of Chinese coast and the southern limit of S. horneri along the coast CYTH4 of Nagasaki Prefecture in Kyushu Island facing East China Sea. In this prefecture, temperate Sargassum species have been already replaced by subtropical ones ( Kiriyama et al., 2006 and Yoshimura et al., 2009) while replacement of S. horneri has not been reported. This is because of its wide temperature range of survival. However, global warming by 2050 promotes replacement of temperate Sargassum species to tropical ones in its southern limits as other temperate Sargassum species observed in Nagasaki Prefecture in 2004. In 2100, it is estimated that S. horneri completely disappeared from the southern Chinese coast and central Honshu Island. The retreat of S. horneri suggests the retreat of most of temperate Sargassum species. Even, some subtropical Sargassum species adapting to warm water such as S. tenuifolium cannot survive along the coast where S. horneri disappeared. Coral reefs dominate coastal tropical waters roughly coinciding with water temperature between 18 °C and 30 °C ( Veron, 1986). Thus corals also may not live along the coasts west of Honshu Island including Kyushu, Shikoku Islands, Ryukyu Archipelago and Chinese coast due to water temperature above 30 °C in August. Yellowtail spawns on the peripheral area of continental shelf in East China Sea.